The senate campaign of Texas Democrat James Talarico has taken some puzzling turns in recent weeks, and he has finally reappeared after a nearly two-week absence. Perhaps more information will come out soon about the nature of his illness and where he convalesced. The lack of any personal statements from Mr. Talarico during the time he was missing, along with the campaign confusion and messaging problems, indicate that the Talarico campaign may be in crisis mode.
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Talarico would need massive Democrat turnout, including that of the party’s most loyal voters — African Americans.
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There is another sign that the Talarico campaign is in crisis mode — shortly before his disappearance Mr. Talarico embraced the “Trust me, I’m lying” strategy regarding several of his previous radical positions, trying to temporarily position himself in the mainstream on issues such as sex-change surgery for minors and allowing “trans women” (e.g. men) to participate in women’s sports. This is a fraught strategy that rarely works any longer. It comes across as pandering dishonesty to the moderates he is appealing to, while it is simultaneously received as betrayal by activists who will not tolerate political dissimulation, even if it’s ultimately in service to their woke agenda.
In a Fox News interview in September, Mr. Talarico tried to distance himself from his previously documented statements that he now says “missed the mark.” Among these, he now claims that he:
- Would “absolutely” vote for a national ban on gender surgeries for minors.
- Opposes trans athletes from competing in women’s sports if it endangers safety or fairness.
- Admits that he was wrong about there being more than two genders, and that there certainly aren’t six genders as he previously asserted.
Talarico’s problem is that he doesn’t just have a record of making outrageously woke statements, he has an actual legislative record that gives lie to his statements to Fox News. As a Texas state representative from Austin, Talarico voted against a 2023 bill which would have banned gender surgeries and puberty blockers for children. In 2021 he voted against legislation that required students to compete in athletics based on the biological sex listed on their birth certificates. Both became law, despite Talarico’s opposition. Now he is pretending that he supports those laws that he voted against.
Many of Talarico’s supporters are feeling betrayed. A Mediate piece titled “Trans Advocates Slam James Talarico for Flip-Flopping on Trans Views” quoted several angry Texas voters who are reconsidering their support for Talarico. While there is no chance that they will vote for Paxton, they might withhold their vote from Talarico. Emily Oswin-Welborn was quoted as saying “I feel like I can’t in good conscience be responsible for putting a Democrat in office that is willing to compromise on trans rights.” That is the risk of attempting the “Trust me, I’m lying” tactic with uncompromising true believers.
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A pastor at Talarico’s heretical Presbyterian church, Babs Miller, expressed her disappointment about Talarico walking back support for the core tenets of the trans ideology, stating that she felt that his Democratic Party campaign team was giving him bad advice. However, she also acknowledged that Mr. Talarico was lying, stating that “I can guarantee you that once he gets elected, he’ll change his tune back to where he was.”
Despite the dubious polls showing Talarico leading Paxton in the Senate race, it will take a near-perfect confluence of events for Talarico to eke out a victory. Disregarding the historic Democrat bias of the polls involved, Talarico would need massive Democrat turnout, including that of the party’s most loyal voters — African Americans. But black Texans are not on board with Talarico, in part because he defeated Jasmine Crockett in the primary, but also because a great many find Talarico’s trans-obsession to be repugnant.
Talarico also must somehow capture a great many crossover Republican voters — the same Texas Republicans who gave Donald Trump 1.5 million more votes than Kamala Harris received in 2024 — a 14 percent margin. There are not many Trump 2024 / Talarico 2026 voters, but that is what Talarico must have in great numbers. In addition, any Republicans who find Paxton’s character off-putting will have a hard time rallying around a political chameleon who endorses the mutilation of children while talking to his base, but lies about it to moderate Republicans.
As for the efficacy of the “Trust me, I’m lying” strategy, I watched it cause the implosion of a U.S. senate race in Tennessee. In 2018 there was an open seat due to the retirement of anti-Trump Republican Bob Corker. “Moderate” Democrat Phil Bredessen, a former governor, was running against MAGA Republican Marsha Blackburn. Polls showed the race to be neck-and-neck, and the media was euphoric about Democrats flipping the seat from red to blue, which would also indicate a red-state repudiation of President Trump.
But then the Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination became a media firestorm. Bredesen refused to take a stand, insinuating to both sides that he would vote their way on Kavanaugh if he were currently a Senator. Blackburn voiced her support for Kavanaugh, and Bredesen couldn’t avoid taking a for-or-against stand any longer. He decided to attempt the “Trust me, I’m lying” strategy by announcing that he supported Kavanaugh’s nomination … and it blew up on him. Pretty much everyone knew he was lying, except for the Democrat base, who took his words at face value. As documented in a Politico piece titled “Volunteers Bolt Bredesen Over Kavanaugh Support,” campaign volunteers canceled phone-bank and door-knocking shifts, while also running to the media to announce their feelings of betrayal.
The Bredesen situation in 2018 closely parallels the Talarico scenario in 2026. Bredesen’s campaign collapsed, and when the votes were tallied, he was crushed by Marsha Blackburn by a margin of 55 percent to 44 percent. It is likely that the Talarico-Paxton race will have a similar outcome.
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