An F/A-18E Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 105, launches on the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77), May 28, 2026. USS George H.W. Bush is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations to support maritime security and stability in the Middle East. (U.S. Navy photo)
Almost since the beginning of the Iran war, President Trump has been entertaining us with the prospect that Iran wants a peace deal. There is reportedly a “memorandum of understanding” on Mr. Trump’s desk reflecting such a deal, and all we are waiting for is the president’s approval.
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Mr. Trump has said that any deal must include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
We have been at war for more than three months, with interruptions by ceasefires in name only. Iran has continued to attack its neighbors — including Israel — with a variety of missiles and drones. Iran has also said it might send its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium to China, from which it could retrieve it in a matter of days. As this column wrote last week, there is a train that runs between Beijing and Tehran that could be used to resupply Tehran with missiles and drones and transport the uranium. (RELATED: Iran War: The End of the Beginning)
Mr. Trump has always campaigned against our “endless wars,” and the use of ground troops would be another, with no end in sight.
It doesn’t appear that Iran wants a deal of any sort that could be acceptable to Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump has previously speculated that Iran would give up its nuclear weapons ambitions, but there is no evidence supporting that. Without the surrender of the ayatollahs’ nuclear program, no deal is worth having. Any interim deal that allows Iranian oil through the Strait would only serve to finance Iran’s rearmament. (RELATED: The Cease-Fire Fiction)
So, where are we on the negotiations? Probably nowhere. The red lines conflict directly with each other.
Mr. Trump has said that he would accept Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” which the Iranians are bound and determined will never happen. They will never surrender their nuclear weapons program regardless of what any agreement might say. (RELATED: Trump’s Iran Strategy: Economic Strangling Is Not Enough)
The Iranians may, temporarily, agree to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, knowing they can close it again at a time of their choosing.
So what can we get in valuable concessions from Iran? Essentially nothing and certainly nothing that Iran will carry out in good faith. Mr. Trump keeps extending the ceasefire while Secretary of War Pete Hegseth says the U.S. is prepared to relaunch the war at any time.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu understands what Mr. Trump apparently does not. Iran will arm itself with nuclear weapons at its first opportunity and will use them at a time that suits the ayatollahs. Nothing will stop that progression of events except the fall of the ayatollahs’ regime.
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But as we have seen, the fall of the ayatollahs’ regime cannot be brought about by our — and the Israelis’ — bombing campaign. There is simply too much fear among the populace to bring that about. So what can we do?
Very little. Mr. Trump can resume our bombing campaign to try to further reduce the ayatollahs’ capabilities. But that won’t work without a further campaign to use ground troops to overthrow the regime, which this column doesn’t recommend. Mr. Trump has always campaigned against our “endless wars,” and the use of ground troops would be another, with no end in sight.
Shortly after the commencement of Mr. Trump’s second term, this column recommended that the president sign a secret Presidential Directive commanding the CIA to get into Iran and overthrow the regime. It may be that he has already tried to do this and failed. If he has not done so, we may have missed the opportunity.
Mr. Trump is under conflicting diplomatic pressures to both resume the war and to keep negotiating. Mr. Netanyahu is clearly campaigning to resume the war, but nations such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are campaigning against it. Mr. Trump is calculating the diplomatic damage if he resumes the bombing campaign. There’s no easy answer to any of this.
Should Mr. Trump resume the bombing campaign? Perhaps we could get lucky and destroy the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps with the help of the Israelis. And perhaps we won’t get lucky and destroy both the IRGC and what remains of the ayatollahs. It’s a calculated guess that could either pay off or fail.
Those are the calculations that have to dominate the president’s mind. The bombing campaign would never be a certainty to achieve our goals, but it is clearly worth the risk, which includes a clash with Congress over the War Powers Resolution. It will be very hard for Mr. Trump to win in both respects, especially with the several defections of Senate Republicans.
Mr. Trump can be counted on to make the tough choices, but he is also capable of making the wrong ones. If he chooses to make a deal with Iran, there’s no assurance that it won’t be the wrong choice that will leave the world with a nuclear-armed Iran.
Iran doesn’t want peace except on its terms, which would preserve their nuclear weapons program. That’s no peace. It’s a recipe for nuclear war.
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READ MORE from Jed Babbin:
Trump’s Munich Moment
The Second Cold War Comes Into Focus
The Cease-Fire Fiction
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