The European press is celebrating the end of “American hegemony” in the Middle East. We are supposedly turning our backs on the region to deal with other regions that are more important (i.e., Europe).
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President Trump seems to be vacillating on how to handle Iran which fits into the European press’s narrative all too well.
On Tuesday, in his speech to the UN General Assembly, Mr. Trump said, “I have a big decision to make … Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before? Maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East or even the world. Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic, and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again?”
Only the fall of the Tehran regime can compel the Iranians to deal with us in good faith.
On Saturday President Trump turned down a seven-day cease-fire deal proposed by Iran. He said, “I reject their proposal … They want to make a deal where they open the Strait immediately because they’re losing so badly … We’re winning tremendously.”
Whether we are winning or not depends on whose opinion you’re asking. Iran believes it is winning, Mr. Trump believes we are, and the Democrats are assuring us that we are not.
The president has also said that November’s mid-term elections will have no effect on what he decides. That is obviously incorrect.
Mr. Trump has already promised to pay every American adult $5,000 if the Republicans keep the House and the Senate in November. He is also desperate to bring the price of gasoline — and its effect on inflation — down. But that can’t happen while the war goes on. And it does, without any path to ending it.
On Friday, Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted at least six Houthi ballistic missiles targeted at various Saudi assets, probably including its pipeline that is trying to replace the Strait of Hormuz as the Saudis’ principal oil export facility. The targets also included Mecca, the holiest city in Islam and Riyadh, capital of Saudi Arabia. The Houthis, of course, follow the orders of the Tehran regime.
They have also said they would blockade Saudi shipping in the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb.
The Iranians, of course, are not trying to make a deal on anything acceptable to Mr. Trump, as Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly. Pezeshkian said, “We will never bow our head or bend at the knee.” He named Mr. Trump directly, saying, “It must be understood by Mr. Trump and those who seek to bully us that we are ready for dialogue and diplomacy and negotiations without accepting the language of force.”
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Indirect negotiations are going on through several nations including Pakistan and Qatar and probably others but U.S. negotiators can’t seem to make any progress toward any goal. The Tehran regime is insisting on a return to the “Memorandum of Understanding” signed in June which has been violated so many times a return to it is laughable. The regime, as this column has said before, is expert at delaying negotiations in the hope we will get tired of them and just quit the war.
So where are we in this war? Nowhere near any deal that is acceptable despite what the president is saying. We should listen more to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu who railed against the UN and its members when it came time for him to address the UN.
Mr. Netanyahu had people taking notes on who left the UN chamber and refused to listen to his speech. Many did, including representatives of Africa, Europe, Latin America, and Asia. Our NATO allies, particularly Germany, the UK, France, Canada, and Australia didn’t walk out on Mr. Netanyahu but remained to listen to his speech.
Mr. Netanyahu said that “we will win because we have no other choice.… Devastating Iran’s nuclear facilities was hard,” Mr. Netanyahu stated. “But for me, it was one of the easiest decisions I’ve ever had to make as Prime Minister. Because if we hadn’t done it, we’d all be dead.”
He also derided the idea that Israel was conducting a genocide in Gaza. He said, “What genocidal regime gives a million polio vaccinations to the enemy’s population? What genocidal regime enables the distribution of two million tons of food into Gaza? That’s a ton for every person.”
Mr. Netanyahu is correct. There is no genocide in Gaza, and if the Iranians ever deploy nuclear weapons, Israel will have to attack first and destroy Iran’s nuclear capability regardless of the cost. Mr. Trump must know that.
Mr. Trump may yet decide to attack Iran again and he may wait until the mid-terms are over. It would be far better for him to not wait.
We don’t know where Iran has stashed its enriched uranium. It may be buried deeply at Isfahan or at Pickaxe Mountain or somewhere else entirely.
Mr. Trump badly wants a deal to end the Iran war but he has no power to compel one. There are scattered reports of fighting between Iranian would-be revolutionaries and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. We need to arm, train, and enable communications between them. Only the fall of the Tehran regime can compel the Iranians to deal with us in good faith.
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READ MORE from Jed Babbin:
The Iran War, the Houthis, and America’s Problem With Winning Wars
Trump Cannot End the Iran War by Simply Declaring Victory
America Is at War With Iran, Whether We Call It a War or Not
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