A few days ago, President Trump forecast an end to the Iran war. He said, “The war will be over very shortly after the election.” If only that were true.
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This week, the war hardly changed. Certainly not in good ways.
Iran, as we learned from a Wall Street Journal report, is again manufacturing ballistic missiles. Three times in the past week, Tehran has fired missiles at U.S. Navy warships in the Persian Gulf. On Wednesday, Iran fired missiles at U.S. forces in Jordan and, on another date, struck our naval base in Bahrain. Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao said that Iran “blew the hell” out of our base, preventing us from docking the USS Abraham Lincoln at the base and requiring it to sail to Thailand for an initial liberty after more than a nine-month deployment.
Mr. Trump was wise to start it [the war] with the B-2 strikes last year on Iran’s nuclear weapons development. But he cannot end the war without ending the Tehran regime.
That doesn’t sound Iran is ready to make peace.
In response to those attacks, U.S. forces attacked and destroyed five Iranian tankers, four in the Gulf of Oman and one near Kharg Island, Iran’s principal oil export zone.
Moreover, the Iranian-backed Houthis seized a strategic island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait from which they can control the Strait and attack oil tankers attempting to pass. Our deterrent forces cannot even stop the Houthis.
Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that we were targeting “civilian infrastructure.” Pezeshkian wrote on X that, “If Americans are warriors, let them face our valiant military forces. Why wage war on civilian infrastructure, food supplies, and livelihoods? If they’re human, why deny people access to water, food, and medicine? Our people can’t be bullied into submission. Iran won’t surrender.”
That, too, doesn’t sound like we’re on the verge of winning the Iran war.
All of those events boil down to the fact that Mr. Trump cannot “win” the Iran war by simply declaring victory and coming home. Any such declaration will ring hollow and he must know that.
To end the war after the mid-terms, Mr. Trump would have to renew the bombing campaign and bring Iran to a state at which it would no longer be able to function as a nation. To do less would allow it to renew its nuclear weapons program.
So what can Mr. Trump do?
He could order a B-2 strike on Iran’s presumed nuclear weapons site at Pickaxe Mountain. He could target Iran’s water and electricity supplies and bomb Kharg Island. He could order the destruction of Iran’s parliament.
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Why hasn’t he done so?
What he cannot do is to simply launch attacks on Iran’s missile launchers which are deployed on trucks so they are almost immune — by virtue of their mobility — and cannot be reliably located by U.S. and Israeli intelligence.
Mr. Trump faces a loss of both the House and the Senate in the mid-terms. The loss of the Senate would make it impossible for him to successfully nominate successors to Justices Sam Alito and Clarence Thomas, who are both getting old.
The war has cost America a lot, including our supply of defensive missiles and the price of gasoline is over $4 a gallon. That brings the cost of inflation to a high point.
Mr. Trump obviously wants to end the Iran war. But he cannot at this point.
To declare victory and come home will allow the Iranians to declare their own victory. They cannot be allowed to do that, as Mr. Trump knows.
Mr. Trump’s only choice is to resume the bombing campaign on Iran. But can we do that while running out of defensive missiles? There is no choice but to do so.
The Iran war is existential to both the Tehran regime and the United States. We cannot allow Iran to have nuclear weapons, which is Mr. Trump’s main goal. But to do so requires the United States to bring doom to the Iranian regime. If we do not do this, they will bring their nuclear ambitions to fruition and endanger our allies and our homeland.
There isn’t anything more to say on ending the Iran war. Mr. Trump was wise to start it with the B-2 strikes last year on Iran’s nuclear weapons development. But he cannot end the war without ending the Tehran regime.
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READ MORE from Jed Babbin:
America Is at War With Iran, Whether We Call It a War or Not
Hamas’s Fire Kites Put the Gaza Cease-Fire to the Test
Trump’s Iran Gamble: ‘Economic D-Day’ and the Strait of Hormuz
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