Gavin Newsom is doing nothing to hide the fact that he is 100 percent running for president in 2028.
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Earlier this month, Newsom made a trip down to South Carolina in what was quite obviously a campaign event in the Democrats’ first-in-the-nation primary state.
In an interview with the Associated Press while campaigning in South Carolina, Newsom said he could very well announce his presidential bid before the end of 2026.
When the Associated Press asked him whether a presidential announcement could come in 2026, Newsom said: “It’s the right question. Honestly, I don’t know. I think this thing’s happening. I mean, you already feel it, right? There are folks out here — they’re saying they’re already starting to interview state directors. So this thing is going to happen very, very quickly.”
This is a pretty definitive statement, especially because “this thing” means his presidential campaign. When you sub in “my presidential campaign” for “this thing,” it comes across as a near campaign announcement.
“I think my presidential campaign’s happening. I mean, you already feel my presidential campaign, right? There are folks out here — they’re saying they’re already starting to interview state directors. So my presidential campaign is going to happen very, very quickly.”
Newsom certainly has a good argument that you can “already feel” his campaign. He made that statement while he was completing an eight-stop swing through South Carolina, during which rooms were packed, excitement was palpable, and traveling vendors sold “Gavin 2028” buttons. (RELATED: Newsom Practically Demands to Be the Democratic Candidate)
The Associated Press wrote that his jaunt through South Carolina “mirrored or even exceeded that of a presidential campaign.” In addition to his eight public speaking events, Newsom attended further private events with local Democratic Party leaders.
Newsom has already developed the strongest relationships with South Carolina Democratic leaders of any future candidate. In August, South Carolina party leaders told Axios that Newsom had “raised more for them than any other prominent Democrat and potential White House rival.”
“He rose to the occasion when we were all facing redistricting challenges,” said the executive director of the state’s Democratic Party.
During his campaign jaunt through South Carolina, Newsom even presented multiple personal birthday gifts to Christale Spain, the chair of the state Democratic Party. He gave her a tiara and a birthday sash for her to wear as she accompanied him at one of his campaign stops on her 50th birthday.
The ambiance at Newsom’s campaign stops was very much that of a vaunted candidate’s presidential campaign. One woman held a sign that said “Hold me,” and Newsom answered her call by giving her a hug.
Newsom’s South Carolina jaunt is just a drop in the bucket of evidence that he is running for president in 2028. He is building up a nationwide, state-by-state infrastructure. He is constantly talking about making the decision to run for president. He is positioning himself as the preeminent Democrat nationally. And he is, to his own admission, having advisors interview state campaign directors. Even his staff is referring to his presidential campaign as “the next thing.” Newsom has been dreaming of this presidential bid for his entire life and actively preparing for it since he was elected mayor of San Francisco.
Yet Newsom evidently has some fears that he is looking too patently ambitious and power-seeking. This is a perception that has — accurately — dogged him throughout his political career. The title of my book on Gavin Newsom is Newsom Unleashed: The Progressive Lust for Unbridled Power, but I’m far from the only one who has noticed that his lust for power has animated every stage of his life. (RELATED: The Borrowed Life of Gavin Newsom)
So in an interview with Jake Tapper, Newsom told the CNN host that he will only run for president if Kamala Harris doesn’t.
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“I wouldn’t run if she ran,” he said while fly fishing in an interview that was released this month but was filmed prior to his South Carolina campaign trip.
Tapper responded, “If she runs, you will not?”
Newsom said, “Of course not. Why would I? I wouldn’t do that to her. I wouldn’t do that to you. I wouldn’t waste everyone’s time. Who needs that?”
“I just, I wouldn’t,” Newsom continued. “No, I wouldn’t. But first of all electorally it’s a gift from God for everybody else. They can enjoy the hell out of it. Mutually assured destruction. It services no greater good.”
Tapper reasoned to Newsom that this is pretty insane and doesn’t make much sense given that Kamala has already run for president twice and lost, whereas Newsom himself has never run.
“That would be the case you would make,” Newsom responded. “A pretty good one, actually. That’s objectively true. I just, but I know what that means. I know her base of supporters. I know her friends. The Zen diagram on that is just pure crossover. It’s not, I wouldn’t do that to people.”
Newsom, of course, means none of this. He’s running for president. He is just doing what he always does. Every few months or so, he makes a dramatic pronouncement or policy move that even nonpolitically engaged people will comment on. It has to be the sort of thing that is so salient and interesting that it will be brought up in conversation among normal people and not simply be known only to the most politically engaged. The strategy is to never be very far from people’s minds. (RELATED: Gavin Newsom’s Pandemic Regrets Tour)
This latest political stunt has the effect of softening the (true) perception that Newsom is going full-steam-ahead toward a presidential campaign, motivated by his own deep ambition. It causes people to question if he really is as self-interested as he comes across as being. And it makes the ‘decision watch’ on whether he will announce his presidential campaign go from boring and obvious to downright fascinating. (READ MORE: Gavin Newsom’s ‘Self-Puffery’ Gets Him in Trouble With David Axelrod)
Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris have been political twins and rivals since they were elected San Francisco mayor and San Francisco district attorney all the way back in 2003. Their political circles have long overlapped (à la Newsom’s “Zen diagram”), but they have done so less in recent years, as both have been top-tier politicians on the national level. (READ MORE: How Kamala Bested Newsom in Their Decades-Long Feud)
When California’s governor’s office was to open up at the end of Jerry Brown’s term, people wondered if Kamala and Newsom would both go after it. It was speculated that if both did, it would be political suicide because their overlapping political circles would cause a third candidate to beat them out. So they communicated with one another and decided that Kamala would go for California’s open Senate seat and Newsom would go for the governor’s mansion.
There’s no longer any real concern of an overlapping “Zen diagram,” but Newsom wants to look magnanimous and deferential toward the party’s first black female presidential nominee.
At the same time, his statement really puts his longtime rival in the hot seat, as it makes her look like she is denying the Democratic Party the chance to have their star run for the presidency if she runs. And it puts Democrats in the position of begging Newsom to run, rather than putting Newsom in the position of begging for votes. (READ MORE: Newsom Practically Demands to Be the Democratic Candidate)
Newsom will just have to hope this stunt doesn’t backfire if Kamala becomes a real contender. Luckily for him, he probably won’t have to worry too much, since she’s bound to flame out like she did in 2019.
Ellie Gardey Holmes is the author of Newsom Unleashed: The Progressive Lust for Unbridled Power.
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