The War With Iran Is Exposing America’s Missile Production Problem

One thing American forces never run out of is munitions — bullets, bombs and missiles — needed to fight a war. But now, we hear, we may be.

The problem isn’t that we’re running out of rifle or pistol ammunition but that we are running out of the sophisticated missiles and other systems we use for offense and defense.

A large part of the problem is that our forces now rely on the super-sophisticated weapons such as the Patriot missile. The Patriot is a defensive missile that is used to shoot down other missiles and aircraft and even drones. It has few equals in defensive weaponry. But the problem is that the Patriot missile costs about $9 million each and its production time is up to about 24 months.

So where do we go from here? Mr. Trump is apparently clueless about how to resolve the shortage.

Ukraine is trying to build Patriots faster and cheaper but the odds of it doing so are slim.

It’s not just the Patriot missiles. Another example is the Army’s tactical missile system (ATACMS), which is an offensive system, costs around $2 million to produce, and production time is anywhere between 12 and 24 months.

Patriot and ATACMS manufacturing can and should be managed by the Defense Department. That is one reason why President Trump is losing patience with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Mr. Trump had been threatening Iran with the biggest strike since World War Two. But he cancelled the strike and we’ve been in another bombing pause for over two weeks.

There was a blowup reported between Messrs. Trump and Hegseth at the Camp David cabinet meeting about two weeks ago. Then Mr. Trump denied that he was unhappy with Hegseth and that there had ever been an argument. But the damage was done and Mr. Hegseth may be living on borrowed time in his job.

There was a sort of confirmation of the shortage of munitions. Former Air Force secretary Frank Kendall, who was secretary of the Air Force under the Biden administration, had his security clearance revoked over a leak he had allegedly made to a reporter aboard Air Force One. Why Mr. Kendall would be aware of the shortage is entirely unclear. As part of the Biden administration why was he trusted with such information?

We have to realize that a reported leak is vastly different from a denial that a particular situation is a reality. The former is a confirmation of the fact and the latter isn’t.

Firing Mr. Hegseth won’t solve the problem of munitions shortages. While Mr. Trump denies that we’re running out of key missiles and such it clearly appears that we are despite the president’s denials.

So where do we go from here? Mr. Trump is apparently clueless about how to resolve the shortage. The Defense Production Act allows him to order more production of the missiles and bombs we need to hit Iran but there is a problem. Unless we shift to a wartime economy, only companies that have the ability to produce the missiles and bombs we need can be ordered to do so.

It wouldn’t make sense to order a cosmetics manufacturer to produce missiles and bombs. It would have to retool and order parts for them which their workforce wouldn’t be quick to learn to produce. It could take years to do so.

We are the world’s supplier of the sophisticated missiles and bombs we need to win the war with Iran. That can’t be solved quickly. Even with the help of Lockheed-Martin and Raytheon, which they must be getting, Ukraine won’t be able to produce Patriot missiles for months if not years.

Mr. Trump seems to be stuck between Iran and a hard place. Bombing halts only enable Iran to rearm (possibly with shipments from China and Russia). Iran’s ability to manufacture drones and missiles hasn’t been destroyed despite the president’s assurances that they have.

Where we go from here is entirely unclear. This war, as this column has said, is unsymmetrical. We are defending with highly sophisticated missiles and bombs but the enemy — Iran — is on both offense and defense using missiles and drones that are far less sophisticated and much cheaper to produce.

Mohammad Baqer Zulqader, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said “until America corrects its behavior, the Strait of Hormuz will not open.” How does Iran want us to “correct” our behavior?

According to a Fox News report, “Zulqader said the U.S. must stop threatening Iran and insulting what he described as the country’s sanctities, end military action against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Yemen and Iraq, and lift the naval blockade.” It would be foolish in the extreme for us to do any of those things because they would amount to a huge win for Iran.

The Iranian regime only understands force and relentless pressure. As I have written, perhaps too often, it is only the toppling of the Iranian regime that can resolve this war to our satisfaction.

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