{"id":525,"date":"2026-06-17T06:37:47","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T06:37:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nationallogisticspost.com\/?p=525"},"modified":"2026-06-17T06:37:47","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T06:37:47","slug":"iran-crippled-but-still-dangerous","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationallogisticspost.com\/?p=525","title":{"rendered":"Iran: Crippled but Still Dangerous"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P<\/span>resident Donald Trump has doubtless earned a feather in his war bonnet. As commander in chief, he has, with minimal American casualties, presided over the crippling of an evil regime that was potentially a mortal threat, governed by men of vile countenance. It is obvious: A coterie of medieval Islamist fanatics seething with rage against the West, with a history of deadly provocations, cannot be allowed to possess enriched U-235.<\/p>\n

Read more \u2018It\u2019s Only a Matter of National Security\u2019: America\u2019s Workforce Academy\u2019s Mission to Fill the Workforce Gap<\/a><\/p>\n

Assuming the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran is signed this Friday to suspend military action and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, there are already analysts and media quick to question whether we are better off now than before the Iran war, and was all the carnage and disruption worth it.<\/p>\n

A complete answer could depend in part on how the 60 days of negotiations regarding release of sanctions, destruction of fissile material, and the status of the Gulf proceed: There is difficult work ahead. During this period, even though an accord has been formally inked, the U.S. should expect obfuscation, backtracking, vagueness, stalling, and occasional tweaks on the nose. Without seeing the text, it is not possible to determine if such a memorandum could be legally binding, and we must wonder if a contract even has much meaning to the mullahs.\u00a0(RELATED: In the Iran War, Trump\u2019s Role Model Should Be Bismarck)<\/strong><\/p>\n

For the next 60 days, things indeed may not be what they seem, and we could expect terpsichorean maneuvers by the Iranians \u2014 even a few missiles lobbed at U.S. assets and those of our allies, and harassment of tankers and warships by missile patrol boats. Intelligence agencies have estimated that Iran still has a substantial missile inventory. The Iranians may well continue their provocations, but not enough to warrant a major kinetic response by the U.S., which could jeopardize a peace agreement that Trump needs to consolidate political gains before the November midterm elections.\u00a0(RELATED: Peace on Our Terms)<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Democrats, a phalanx of media, and other sources are anxious to conclude that after all the tumult, Trump has only brought us back to where we were with the\u00a0Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran nuclear deal completed by then Secretary of State John Kerry under President Barack Obama in July 2015.\u00a0 This thinking, aimed at discrediting the White House, is incorrect.<\/p>\n

Presently, the U.S. and world at large are better off with a militarily weakened Iran, including our best allies, who did little to diplomatically influence Iran or support the U.S. and Israel during the prosecution of the war. Iran is now on notice that any attempts to resurrect nuclear infrastructure will be targeted and devastated. Further, much of Iran\u2019s military and industrial capacity has been annihilated, although Iran does not need an air force or conventional navy to still control the Persian Gulf in view of its array of asymmetric weapons \u2014 mines, missiles, and drones. In any event, the mullahs who encourage young men to die on their behalf have learned the meaning of decapitation strikes.<\/p>\n

Another difference is that the Iran nuclear deal had phased sunset provisions extending up to 20 years with regard to nuclear development, applying to research, ballistic missile development, nuclear manufacturing infrastructure, and a limit on enrichment at commercial levels. If the Iranians abide by their commitment, they are forsaking the development of a nuclear weapon altogether.<\/p>\n

Modestly encouraging is that while the reaction of Europe, which is vulnerable to energy price shocks, has been a disappointment, we are now beginning to see some diplomatic support from Great Britain and Germany, and from France, which also symbolically deployed a carrier strike group to the Red Sea, albeit after the fight.<\/p>\n

Read more Green Energy Reels From Major Defeats, but the Battle Continues<\/a><\/p>\n

Analysts and media will also evaluate the economic cost of the Iran war, disclosed by the Pentagon to be\u00a0$29 billion. However, it is noted that this accounting figure does not include the cost of replacing THAAD and Patriot platforms, restoration of U.S. bases in the Middle East struck by Iranian ballistic missiles, the impact of oil on world GDP, and the cost of rebuilding oil and gas infrastructure by Gulf states. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that frozen Iranian assets will be used for the restoration of facilities of those nations damaged by Iran.<\/p>\n

However, against these economic costs would likely be a rabidly anti-West regime with several nuclear weapons that values martyrdom. Trucks or backpacks could be the delivery mechanism \u2014 no need for ballistic means.<\/p>\n

While decimated on the battlefield, Iran has emerged as a state actor with economic and political clout as the keeper of the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 percent of the world\u2019s oil and LNG must pass daily. Even threats to choke the Strait will impede shipping traffic and damage insurance markets. Moreover, Iran still thinks it has the authority to levy tolls on maritime traffic in the Gulf, an international waterway.<\/p>\n

Badly wounded, Iran nonetheless has two strategic assets: its continuing ability to block the Gulf, and uranium hexafluoride gas deep underground at sites believed in March by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to be at Isfahan and Natanz, although some sources have also named Fordow.<\/p>\n

Militarily and industrially crippled and decapitated, Iran is still a dangerous state actor to be reckoned with, and in the next 60 days, it could continue to test the United States.<\/p>\n

READ MORE from Frank Schell:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Iran: \u2018The Clock Is Ticking\u2026\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

America Needs to Prepare for a Long Iran War<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Objective Should Be a Secular and Moderate Iran<\/strong><\/p>\n

Frank Schell is a former senior vice president of the First National Bank of Chicago and was later a management consultant. He was a lecturer at the Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago, and is a contributor of opinion pieces to various journals.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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